PREVIEW AND PREDICTION: No. 14 USC vs. Fresno State

Friday, Sept. 4 – 6:00 p.m. PT | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Live on: FOX
Photographer: Jeremy Westerbeck

Preview

Week 0 was a midday grind in the heat. Friday is the version of USC football that actually feels like USC football: night game, Coliseum, national TV, and a visitor that came to survive, not to keep up.

No. 14 USC (1-0) hosts Fresno State in the Bulldogs’ opener and their first game as a Pac-12 team. The Trojans already punched the clock last Saturday, beating San José State 42-26. The final score was the least honest part of the afternoon. USC led 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters, stacked 505 yards, converted 9-of-13 third downs, and held the ball for 37:15. Then the fourth quarter got sloppy, and the Spartans scored 23.

Jayden Maiava set the tone before that. He completed 25-of-29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, added a rushing score, and never looked like a quarterback shaking off rust. True freshman Trent Mosley was the breakout — 7 catches, 118 yards, a touchdown — while King Miller, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Riley Wormley, and Shahn Alston all found the end zone. The offense has answers. The question Friday is whether Gary Patterson’s defense closes the game the way it started it.

This series belongs to Troy, 4-1. The last meeting was Sept. 17, 2022 at the Coliseum, and it ended 45-17. The sequel has a twist. Fresno State head coach Matt Entz spent 2024 on Lincoln Riley’s staff as assistant head coach for defense and linebackers. John Baxter is on that sideline too. Entz knows the building, the tempo, and the way Riley likes to attack. That does not replace the talent gap. It does mean Fresno State will not show up guessing.

The Bulldogs are a real team. They went 9-4 last season, beat Boise State, and won the Arizona Bowl 18-3 over Miami (Ohio). Their defense was the Mountain West’s best, allowing 18.8 points and 285.7 yards per game with 20 interceptions. Simeon Harris headlined that group. On offense, Entz named Jayden Mandal the starter this week and will lean on Rayshon Luke (702 rushing yards, six TDs in 2025) and Bryson Donelson (600 yards, five TDs), with Josiah Freeman as the featured receiver. Fresno State’s path is simple: run it, hide the new quarterback, and hope the defense keeps Maiava in a phone booth.

That works until USC’s skill players get one-on-one. Mosley already proved he can win those. Miller gives the Trojans a downhill answer if Fresno State loads the box. And Maiava just spent a full game getting in rhythm while Fresno State is opening on the road against a ranked roster in prime time.

Prediction

Fresno State’s defense makes this look like a game for a half. Then USC’s depth shows up, the run game starts finishing drives, and the fourth quarter belongs to the home sideline this time.

JP’s Pick: USC 42, Fresno State 10